Last month's initial deal between Russian Gazprom and China's state oil firm CNPC to build two pipelines that will eventually supply 60-80bn cum/yr to China, some of which could be shipped to South Korea, cheered energy planners in Seoul. But after three years of stalemate on plans to open-up the huge Kovykta gas field in Eastern Siberia, South Korea, which depends on imported LNG for almost 13% of its energy needs, is unwilling to risk its energy security on a Russian announcement. However, the country's deadline looms: South Korea has worked with Anglo Russian oil company TNK-BP Holding and CNPC to carry out the Irkutsk gas pipeline project, which involves development of TNK-BP's Kovykta gasfield. The field contains 13bn ton of proven LNG-equivalent gas, enough to supply South Korea for nearly 600 years. Under a preliminary plan, South Korea would receive the equivalent of 7m tons/yr of LNG, about 31% of last year's total imports, transported in tankers. A source familiar with the plan said it envisaged 38bn cum going via the eastern route and 30bn cm via the west, with Korean demand taking another 10bn cum in the east by 2011. China can afford to wait for the Russian supplies to materialize, as the world's second-largest energy user has potentially huge untapped demand to absorb the extra gas if it comes, and vast domestic coal resources to rely on if it falters. South Korea has no such luxuries and the crunch time is looming. Given the typical five-year lead time required to secure long-term LNG contracts, Kogas must decide soon if it hopes to secure any new supplies before 2012. "South Korean gas demand is increasing fast, so if they just keep waiting for pipeline gas and if they do not sign new LNG contracts, they will lose LNG supplies to other countries," said a Tokyo-based gas analyst. South Korea has long-term contracts with suppliers such as Qatar, Malaysia, and Indonesia that are due to end within two years.
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