DNV GL has released its inaugural report on the outlook for the world’s energy transition, finding oil and gas will be crucial components of the market in the future.
While renewable energy will grow its share of the energy mix, oil and gas will account for 44 per cent of world energy supply in 2050, compared to 53 per cent today.
Gas will become the largest single source of energy from 2034.
DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook 2017 (ETO), a forecast that spans the global energy mix to 2050, predicts that global demand for energy will flatten in 2030, then steadily decline over the next two decades, thanks to step-changes in energy efficiency.
The fossil fuel share of the world’s primary energy mix will reduce from 81 per cent currently to 52 per cent in 2050.
Demand for oil will peak in 2022, driven by expectations of a surge in prominence of light electric vehicles, accounting for 50 per cent of new car sales globally by 2035.
However, the report predicts that gas will become the largest single source of energy towards 2050, and the last of the fossil fuels to experience peak demand, which DNV GL expects will occur in 2035.
Speaking on the release of the report, DNV GL Oil & Gas CEO Elisabeth Tørstad said, “Oil and gas will be crucial components of the world’s energy future, according to DNV GL’s inaugural ETO
“While renewable energy will grow its share of the energy mix, our independent model predicting the energy mix to 2050, shows that oil and gas will account for 44 per cent of world energy supply in 2050, compared to 53 per cent today.
“Our forecast shows humanity’s energy demand plateauing after 2030, thanks to step-changes in energy efficiency and gas becoming the world’s largest single source of energy by 2035.
“Gas will continue to play a key role alongside renewables in helping to meet future, lower-carbon, energy requirements.
“We have seen impressive and important innovative efforts across the energy industry, resulting in cost saving and efficiency gains.
“The oil and gas industry must continue on a path of strict cost control to stay relevant.
“Coming from a tradition of technological achievements, and having the advantage of existing infrastructure and value chains, this industry has the potential to continue to contribute to energy security and shape our energy future.
“Our oil and gas report translates the energy requirements of key demand sectors into the trends we expect to see across the value chain.
“We discuss how demand from existing and new production capacity will be met; we consider implications for LNG and pipelines; and we explore and the role digitalisation and emerging technologies.”
For more information visit the ETO website.
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